Dating problem probability
different sets of adjectives that a test-taker can receive.We can apply the naive definition of probability, with the numerator being the number of ways that Bob can match Alice on 4 out of 5 adjectives, plus the number of ways that Bob can match Alice on 5 out of 5 adjectives.28 and the way the media covered the Comey story may have been affected by the presumption that Clinton was almost sure to win." — Clinton has even made a version of his claim herself.He had a nearly 71% chance that 2 or more of us would share a birthday.Many people are surprised to find that if you repeat this calculation with a group of 23 people you’ll still have a 50% chance that at least two people were born on the same day.The survey was conducted from early September through the election, so it captures periods in which Clinton had both smaller and larger leads.
Anyway like he predicted before he got to the last student a pair of matching birthdays had been found.
It was a class of about 30 students and the professor bet that at least two of us shared the same birthday.
He then proceeded to have everyone state their birthday.
This alternate exercise is helpful because it is the complete opposite of our original problem (i.e. In probability we know that the total of all the possible outcomes (i.e. We’re finally ready to find out how safe a bet the professor made.
the sample space) is always equal to 1, or 100% chance. Let’s work out the probability that no one shares the same birthday out of a room of 30 people.