Dating books pdf
It places particular emphasis on measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular sectors.These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the committee in independent research (James Stock and Mark Watson, (available here), real personal income excluding transfers, the payroll and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work in the total economy.CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.